Super League 1 · Greece · Regular Season - 26

Kallithea–PAOK

2–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 9 March 2025 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis, Athens

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 12%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

2'PAOKK. Despodov
14'KallitheaM. Alfarela (assist: J. Mejias)
90'KallitheaG. Loukinas (assist: M. Ndiaye)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Kallithea		PAOK
16	Shots	12
7	Shots on target	2
14	Shots inside the box	8
1	Goalkeeper saves	4
5	Corners	7
0	Offsides	1
29%	Possession	71%
227	Passes	560
156	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Kallithea 0.78 · PAOK 2.08. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Kallithea 16 · PAOK 12; on target 7 and 2.
PAOK kept the ball more (71%).

Referee

K. Katikos→

5.75

yellows per match

0.38

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 68.0%: “PAOK to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 20.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.78 for Kallithea, 2.08 for PAOK.
The highest double chance value is 88.5% (X2 — draw or PAOK win).
These values were computed from 599 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Kallithea to win11.5%

Draw20.5%

PAOK to win68.0%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 1,039 of 1,527 predictions were correct (68.0%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

14	Fouls	7

2	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Kallithea lead at half-time10.8%

Level at half-time41.4%

PAOK lead at half-time47.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Kallithea ahead or level52.2%

12 — not level at half-time58.6%

X2 — level or PAOK ahead89.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 598 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Kallithea: at least 12Actual: 14
PAOK: at least 13Actual: 7

Corners

Kallithea: at least 4Actual: 5
PAOK: at least 5Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Kallithea score0.78

Attack: Kallithea score below the league average (15% fewer).

Opponent's defence: PAOK concede 27% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.78 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals PAOK score2.08

Attack: PAOK score 57% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Kallithea concede 17% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: A strong attack meets a weak defence. The effects compound and the expectation rises to 2.08 goals.

Most likely scorelines

0–212.8%0–111.2%1–210.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.