Super League 1 · Greece · Regular Season - 22

Atromitos–Kallithea

1–2

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Monday, 10 February 2025 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Peristeri Stadium, Peristeri

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 26%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

9'KallitheaTriantafyllos Pasalidis (assist: M. Valbuena)
45'KallitheaM. Valbuena (penalty)
76'AtromitosD. Tsakmakis (assist: T. van Weert)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Atromitos		Kallithea
17	Shots	11
5	Shots on target	3
11	Shots inside the box	8
1	Goalkeeper saves	4
10	Corners	6
0	Offsides	3
58%	Possession	42%
383	Passes	280
309	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Atromitos 1.33 · Kallithea 0.98. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Atromitos 17 · Kallithea 11; on target 5 and 3.
Atromitos kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

S. Zabalas→

5.62

yellows per match

0.14

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 44.2%: “Atromitos to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.33 for Atromitos, 0.98 for Kallithea.
The highest double chance value is 73.9% (1X — Atromitos win or draw).
These values were computed from 576 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Atromitos to win44.2%

Draw29.7%

Kallithea to win26.1%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,296 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

18	Fouls	19

5	Yellow cards	5

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–2

Atromitos lead at half-time34.7%

Level at half-time45.3%

Kallithea lead at half-time20.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Atromitos ahead or level80.0%

12 — not level at half-time54.7%

X2 — level or Kallithea ahead65.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 575 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Atromitos: at least 13Actual: 18
Kallithea: at least 14Actual: 19

Corners

Atromitos: at least 4Actual: 10
Kallithea: at least 3Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Atromitos score1.33

Attack: Atromitos score below the league average (17% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Kallithea's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.33 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Kallithea score0.98

Attack: Kallithea score below the league average (18% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Atromitos's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.98 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.9%1–012.5%0–09.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.