Super League 1 · Greece · Regular Season - 19

Panserraikos–Lamia

2–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Monday, 20 January 2025 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Dimotiko Stadio Serron, Serres

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

22'PanserraikosJason Davidson (assist: A. Liasos)
61'PanserraikosJefté Betancor (assist: E. Bergstrom)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Panserraikos		Lamia
17	Shots	8
6	Shots on target	1
7	Shots inside the box	3
1	Goalkeeper saves	4
4	Corners	3
2	Offsides	0
62%	Possession	38%
538	Passes	328
448	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Panserraikos 1.53 · Lamia 1.00. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Panserraikos 17 · Lamia 8; on target 6 and 1.
Panserraikos kept the ball more (62%).

Referee

S. Zabalas→

5.65

yellows per match

0.15

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 49.0%: “Panserraikos to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.53 for Panserraikos, 1.00 for Lamia.
The highest double chance value is 76.6% (1X — Panserraikos win or draw).
These values were computed from 556 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Panserraikos to win49.0%

Draw27.6%

Lamia to win23.4%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,069 of 4,390 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

19	Fouls	15

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Panserraikos lead at half-time39.2%

Level at half-time42.2%

Lamia lead at half-time18.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Panserraikos ahead or level81.4%

12 — not level at half-time57.8%

X2 — level or Lamia ahead60.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 555 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Panserraikos: at least 13Actual: 19
Lamia: at least 14Actual: 15

Corners

Panserraikos: at least 4Actual: 4
Lamia: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Panserraikos score1.53

Attack: Panserraikos score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Lamia concede 26% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.53 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Lamia score1.00

Attack: Lamia score below the league average (35% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Panserraikos concede 27% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.00 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.0%1–011.4%2–110.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.