Super League 1 · Greece · Regular Season - 17

Atromitos–Asteras Tripolis

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 5 January 2025 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Peristeri Stadium, Peristeri

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 29%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

79'Asteras TripolisOluwatobiloba Alagbe (assist: F. Macheda)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Atromitos		Asteras Tripolis
7	Shots	13
1	Shots on target	1
3	Shots inside the box	6
0	Goalkeeper saves	1
4	Corners	8
1	Offsides	3
54%	Possession	46%
451	Passes	382
372	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Atromitos 1.35 · Asteras Tripolis 1.09. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Atromitos 7 · Asteras Tripolis 13; on target 1 and 1.

Referee

S. Zabalas→

5.63

yellows per match

0.16

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.9%: “Atromitos to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.35 for Atromitos, 1.09 for Asteras Tripolis.
The highest double chance value is 71.0% (1X — Atromitos win or draw).
These values were computed from 540 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Atromitos to win41.9%

Draw29.2%

Asteras Tripolis to win29.0%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,296 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	13

2	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Atromitos lead at half-time26.4%

Level at half-time43.8%

Asteras Tripolis lead at half-time29.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Atromitos ahead or level70.2%

12 — not level at half-time56.2%

X2 — level or Asteras Tripolis ahead73.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 539 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Atromitos: at least 12Actual: 13
Asteras Tripolis: at least 14Actual: 13

Corners

Atromitos: at least 4Actual: 4
Asteras Tripolis: at least 3Actual: 8

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Atromitos score1.35

Attack: Atromitos score below the league average (18% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Asteras Tripolis's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.35 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Asteras Tripolis score1.09

Attack: Asteras Tripolis score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Atromitos's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.09 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.8%1–010.9%2–19.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.