Super League 1 · Greece · Regular Season - 14

Kallithea–Levadiakos

2–4

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Monday, 9 December 2024 at 15:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis, Athens

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 29%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

23'KallitheaNicolas Isimat-Mirin
52'KallitheaM. Ndiaye
56'LevadiakosGiannis Kosti (assist: Zini)
63'LevadiakosZini (assist: T. Tsapras)
69'LevadiakosZini
90+8'LevadiakosZini (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Kallithea		Levadiakos
11	Shots	12
6	Shots on target	6
5	Shots inside the box	8
2	Goalkeeper saves	4
6	Corners	5
0	Offsides	1
47%	Possession	53%
347	Passes	399
265	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Kallithea 1.42 · Levadiakos 1.15. On the pitch: 2-4.
Shots Kallithea 11 · Levadiakos 12; on target 6 and 6.

Referee

K. Katikos→

5.64

yellows per match

0.45

reds per match

matches of data

11 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.5%: “Kallithea to win”. Second comes “Levadiakos to win” at 29.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.42 for Kallithea, 1.15 for Levadiakos.
The highest double chance value is 71.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 521 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Kallithea to win42.5%

Draw28.3%

Levadiakos to win29.2%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,296 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	20

3	Yellow cards	7

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Kallithea lead at half-time26.9%

Level at half-time43.3%

Levadiakos lead at half-time29.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Kallithea ahead or level70.2%

12 — not level at half-time56.7%

X2 — level or Levadiakos ahead73.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 520 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Kallithea: at least 15Actual: 14
Levadiakos: at least 13Actual: 20

Corners

Kallithea: at least 4Actual: 6
Levadiakos: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Kallithea score1.42

Attack: Kallithea score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Levadiakos's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.42 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Levadiakos score1.15

Attack: Levadiakos score below the league average (24% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Kallithea concede 15% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.15 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.4%1–010.0%2–19.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.