Super League 1 · Greece · Regular Season - 10

Asteras Tripolis–OFI

3–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Monday, 4 November 2024 at 15:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis, Tripoli

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

47'Asteras TripolisDiamantis Chouchoumis (assist: J. Bartolo)
56'Asteras TripolisF. Macheda (assist: Xesc Regis)
75'Asteras TripolisOluwatobiloba Alagbe (assist: T. Tzandaris)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Asteras Tripolis		OFI
14	Shots	17
7	Shots on target	4
9	Shots inside the box	9
4	Goalkeeper saves	3
6	Corners	5
0	Offsides	3
39%	Possession	61%
295	Passes	485
239	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Asteras Tripolis 1.37 · OFI 1.21. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots Asteras Tripolis 14 · OFI 17; on target 7 and 4.
OFI kept the ball more (61%).

Referee

S. Zabalas→

5.29

yellows per match

0.12

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.7%: “Asteras Tripolis to win”. Second comes “OFI to win” at 31.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.37 for Asteras Tripolis, 1.21 for OFI.
The highest double chance value is 71.5% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 493 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Asteras Tripolis to win39.7%

Draw28.5%

OFI to win31.8%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,090 of 5,638 predictions were correct (37.1%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	11

3	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Asteras Tripolis lead at half-time40.8%

Level at half-time39.5%

OFI lead at half-time19.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Asteras Tripolis ahead or level80.3%

12 — not level at half-time60.5%

X2 — level or OFI ahead59.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 492 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Asteras Tripolis: at least 13Actual: 11
OFI: at least 14Actual: 11

Corners

Asteras Tripolis: at least 4Actual: 6
OFI: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Asteras Tripolis score1.37

Attack: Asteras Tripolis score below the league average (17% fewer).

Opponent's defence: OFI's defence is close to the league average (1.14×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.37 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals OFI score1.21

Attack: OFI score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Asteras Tripolis's defence is close to the league average (1.03×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.21 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.5%1–09.5%2–19.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.