Super League 1 · Greece · Regular Season - 8

Lamia–Asteras Tripolis

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 19 October 2024 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias, Lamia

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 27%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
Lamia		Asteras Tripolis
10	Shots	7
2	Shots on target	2
7	Shots inside the box	6
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
6	Corners	5
1	Offsides	4
39%	Possession	61%
332	Passes	532
243	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Lamia 1.14 · Asteras Tripolis 1.53. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Lamia 10 · Asteras Tripolis 7; on target 2 and 2.
Asteras Tripolis kept the ball more (61%).

Referee

K. Katikos→

6.00

yellows per match

0.56

reds per match

matches of data

9 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 45.6%: “Asteras Tripolis to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.14 for Lamia, 1.53 for Asteras Tripolis.
The highest double chance value is 73.0% (X2 — draw or Asteras Tripolis win).
These values were computed from 475 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Lamia to win27.0%

Draw27.4%

Asteras Tripolis to win45.6%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,070 of 4,392 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	14

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Lamia lead at half-time29.3%

Level at half-time40.3%

Asteras Tripolis lead at half-time30.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Lamia ahead or level69.6%

12 — not level at half-time59.7%

X2 — level or Asteras Tripolis ahead70.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 474 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Lamia: at least 12Actual: 15
Asteras Tripolis: at least 14Actual: 14

Corners

Lamia: at least 3Actual: 6
Asteras Tripolis: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Lamia score1.14

Attack: Lamia score below the league average (29% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Asteras Tripolis's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.14 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Asteras Tripolis score1.53

Attack: Asteras Tripolis score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Lamia concede 37% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.53 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.9%1–210.2%0–19.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.