Super League 1 · Greece · Regular Season - 7

Aris Thessalonikis–Lamia

2–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 5 October 2024 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium, Thessaloniki

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

4'Aris ThessalonikisLoren Morón (assist: Monchu)
43'Aris ThessalonikisLoren Morón (assist: J. Cifuentes)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Aris Thessalonikis		Lamia
14	Shots	11
6	Shots on target	2
6	Shots inside the box	4
2	Goalkeeper saves	4
4	Corners	1
4	Offsides	0
64%	Possession	36%
691	Passes	378
608	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Aris Thessalonikis 2.16 · Lamia 0.75. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Aris Thessalonikis 14 · Lamia 11; on target 6 and 2.
Aris Thessalonikis kept the ball more (64%).

Referee

S. Zabalas→

5.38

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 70.5%: “Aris Thessalonikis to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 19.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.16 for Aris Thessalonikis, 0.75 for Lamia.
The highest double chance value is 89.7% (1X — Aris Thessalonikis win or draw).
These values were computed from 468 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Aris Thessalonikis to win70.5%

Draw19.3%

Lamia to win10.3%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 912 of 1,221 predictions were correct (74.7%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	19

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

Aris Thessalonikis lead at half-time44.0%

Level at half-time42.0%

Lamia lead at half-time14.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Aris Thessalonikis ahead or level86.0%

12 — not level at half-time58.0%

X2 — level or Lamia ahead56.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 467 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Aris Thessalonikis: at least 13Actual: 13
Lamia: at least 15Actual: 19

Corners

Aris Thessalonikis: at least 5Actual: 4
Lamia: at least 2Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Aris Thessalonikis score2.16

Attack: Aris Thessalonikis score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Lamia concede 39% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.16 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Lamia score0.75

Attack: Lamia score below the league average (27% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Aris Thessalonikis's defence is close to the league average (0.88×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.75 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–013.1%1–011.0%2–110.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.