Super League 1 · Greece · Regular Season - 2

AEK Athens FC–Lamia

1–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 24 August 2024 at 18:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: OPAP Arena, Athens

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 4%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

39'LamiaGustavo Furtado (assist: A. Bykov)
87'AEK Athens FCH. Moukoudi (assist: Erik Lamela)

Match statistics

Match statistics
AEK Athens FC		Lamia
30	Shots	3
5	Shots on target	1
19	Shots inside the box	2
0	Goalkeeper saves	4
13	Corners	1
2	Offsides	2
80%	Possession	20%
652	Passes	170
564	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: AEK Athens FC 3.40 · Lamia 0.23. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots AEK Athens FC 30 · Lamia 3; on target 5 and 1.
AEK Athens FC kept the ball more (80%).

Referee

K. Poulikidis→

5.00

yellows per match

0.33

reds per match

matches of data

6 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 94.8%: “AEK Athens FC to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 4.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 3.40 for AEK Athens FC, 0.23 for Lamia.
The highest double chance value is 99.3% (1X — AEK Athens FC win or draw).
These values were computed from 433 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

AEK Athens FC to win94.8%

Draw4.5%

Lamia to win0.7%

When the model has said 90–95% in the past, 103 of 110 predictions were correct (93.6%). Accuracy record →

4	Fouls	15

1	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

AEK Athens FC lead at half-time72.9%

Level at half-time25.0%

Lamia lead at half-time2.1%

First-half double chance

1X — AEK Athens FC ahead or level97.9%

12 — not level at half-time75.0%

X2 — level or Lamia ahead27.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 432 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

AEK Athens FC: at least 14Actual: 4
Lamia: at least 13Actual: 15

Corners

AEK Athens FC: at least 7Actual: 13
Lamia: at least 2Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals AEK Athens FC score3.40

Attack: AEK Athens FC score 72% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Lamia concede 35% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: A strong attack meets a weak defence. The effects compound and the expectation rises to 3.40 goals.

How many goals Lamia score0.23

Attack: Lamia score below the league average (22% fewer).

Opponent's defence: AEK Athens FC concede 46% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.23 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

3–018.4%4–015.7%2–015.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Week 2 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this: the bias is only pronounced in the opening week. In this week the model's overall accuracy does not separate from the rest of the season — that is, we found no measurable flaw. The one tendency across all opening weeks is that home wins are called slightly too often (said 43.0%, got 41.9%; n=583).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.