Eliteserien · Norway · Regular Season - 30

Kristiansund BK–Rosenborg

0–4

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 1 December 2024 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Kristiansund Stadion, Kristiansand

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — only 4.7% between the top two

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

19'RosenborgS. Nypan (assist: Ole Christian Saeter)
49'RosenborgM. Broholm
68'RosenborgE. Tagseth (assist: U. Yttergård Jenssen)
78'RosenborgM. Ceïde (assist: U. Yttergård Jenssen)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Kristiansund BK		Rosenborg
5	Shots	16
1	Shots on target	6
3	Shots inside the box	15
2	Goalkeeper saves	1
3	Corners	6
0	Offsides	0
29%	Possession	71%
299	Passes	729
234	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Kristiansund BK 1.38 · Rosenborg 1.49. On the pitch: 0-4.
Shots Kristiansund BK 5 · Rosenborg 16; on target 1 and 6.
Rosenborg kept the ball more (71%).

Referee

O. Nilsen→

3.15

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 38.9%: “Rosenborg to win”. Second comes “Kristiansund BK to win” at 34.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.38 for Kristiansund BK, 1.49 for Rosenborg.
The highest double chance value is 73.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 712 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Kristiansund BK to win34.2%

Draw26.9%

Rosenborg to win38.9%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,090 of 5,638 predictions were correct (37.1%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	10

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Kristiansund BK lead at half-time28.3%

Level at half-time42.8%

Rosenborg lead at half-time28.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Kristiansund BK ahead or level71.1%

12 — not level at half-time57.2%

X2 — level or Rosenborg ahead71.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 712 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Kristiansund BK: at least 10Actual: 11
Rosenborg: at least 10Actual: 10

Corners

Kristiansund BK: at least 4Actual: 3
Rosenborg: at least 5Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Kristiansund BK score1.38

Attack: Kristiansund BK score below the league average (16% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Rosenborg's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.38 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Rosenborg score1.49

Attack: Rosenborg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Kristiansund BK's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.49 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.3%1–29.5%2–18.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.