Eliteserien · Norway · Regular Season - 28

Ham-Kam–Rosenborg

0–2

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Sunday, 10 November 2024 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Briskeby Arena, Hamar

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

3'RosenborgOle Christian Saeter (penalty)
6'RosenborgM. Broholm (assist: S. Nypan)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Ham-Kam		Rosenborg
12	Shots	20
0	Shots on target	8
6	Shots inside the box	14
6	Goalkeeper saves	0
1	Corners	6
0	Offsides	1
48%	Possession	52%
457	Passes	524
388	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Ham-Kam 1.41 · Rosenborg 1.52. On the pitch: 0-2.
Shots Ham-Kam 12 · Rosenborg 20; on target 0 and 8.

Referee

S. Kringstad→

2.91

yellows per match

0.21

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.3%: “Rosenborg to win”. Second comes “Ham-Kam to win” at 34.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.41 for Ham-Kam, 1.52 for Rosenborg.
The highest double chance value is 73.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 697 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Ham-Kam to win34.1%

Draw26.6%

Rosenborg to win39.3%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,090 of 5,638 predictions were correct (37.1%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	12

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–2

Ham-Kam lead at half-time33.3%

Level at half-time41.5%

Rosenborg lead at half-time25.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Ham-Kam ahead or level74.8%

12 — not level at half-time58.5%

X2 — level or Rosenborg ahead66.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 697 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Ham-Kam: at least 9Actual: 10
Rosenborg: at least 9Actual: 12

Corners

Ham-Kam: at least 5Actual: 1
Rosenborg: at least 5Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Ham-Kam score1.41

Attack: Ham-Kam score below the league average (16% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Rosenborg's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.41 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Rosenborg score1.52

Attack: Rosenborg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Ham-Kam's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.52 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.0%1–29.5%2–18.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.