Eliteserien · Norway · Regular Season - 28

Sarpsborg 08 FF–Molde

2–2

HT 2–2

Kick-off: Sunday, 10 November 2024 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Sarpsborg Stadion, Sarpsberg

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 24%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

7'Sarpsborg 08 FFS. Johansen (penalty)
16'MoldeO. Brynhildsen (assist: M. Møller Dæhli)
22'MoldeK. Eriksen
25'Sarpsborg 08 FFV. Halvorsen (assist: M. Koch)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sarpsborg 08 FF		Molde
9	Shots	14
5	Shots on target	4
7	Shots inside the box	13
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
5	Corners	10
1	Offsides	0
51%	Possession	49%
433	Passes	392
344	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.29 · Molde 1.89. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots Sarpsborg 08 FF 9 · Molde 14; on target 5 and 4.

Referee

C. Moen→

3.09

yellows per match

0.06

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 51.2%: “Molde to win”. Second comes “Sarpsborg 08 FF to win” at 24.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.29 for Sarpsborg 08 FF, 1.89 for Molde.
The highest double chance value is 75.8% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 697 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sarpsborg 08 FF to win24.6%

Draw24.2%

Molde to win51.2%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,798 of 3,471 predictions were correct (51.8%). Accuracy record →

6	Fouls	12

1	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–2

Sarpsborg 08 FF lead at half-time18.4%

Level at half-time37.5%

Molde lead at half-time44.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Sarpsborg 08 FF ahead or level56.0%

12 — not level at half-time62.5%

X2 — level or Molde ahead81.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 697 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Sarpsborg 08 FF: at least 10Actual: 6
Molde: at least 9Actual: 12

Corners

Sarpsborg 08 FF: at least 5Actual: 5
Molde: at least 4Actual: 10

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sarpsborg 08 FF score1.29

Attack: Sarpsborg 08 FF score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Molde concede 22% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.29 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Molde score1.89

Attack: Molde score above the league average (35% more).

Opponent's defence: Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.89 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.5%1–210.6%0–27.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.