Eliteserien · Norway · Regular Season - 26

Bodo/Glimt–Rosenborg

2–3

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Monday, 28 October 2024 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Aspmyra Stadion, Bodø

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 13%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

35'RosenborgE. Tagseth
40'Bodo/GlimtF. Bjorkan
50'Bodo/GlimtP. Zinckernagel (assist: S. Fet)
56'RosenborgA. Pereira (assist: M. Zeidan)
90+2'RosenborgN. Sahsah

Match statistics

Match statistics
Bodo/Glimt		Rosenborg
22	Shots	11
7	Shots on target	4
17	Shots inside the box	8
1	Goalkeeper saves	5
13	Corners	6
1	Offsides	0
52%	Possession	48%
475	Passes	451
411	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Bodo/Glimt 2.29 · Rosenborg 0.94. On the pitch: 2-3.
Shots Bodo/Glimt 22 · Rosenborg 11; on target 7 and 4.

Referee

M. Aslam→

3.96

yellows per match

0.15

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 68.3%: “Bodo/Glimt to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 19.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.29 for Bodo/Glimt, 0.94 for Rosenborg.
The highest double chance value is 87.5% (1X — Bodo/Glimt win or draw).
These values were computed from 687 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Bodo/Glimt to win68.3%

Draw19.2%

Rosenborg to win12.5%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 1,039 of 1,527 predictions were correct (68.0%). Accuracy record →

6	Fouls	8

0	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 3,522 of 6,222 predictions were correct (56.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Bodo/Glimt win or draw87.5%

12 — any result other than a draw80.8%

X2 — draw or Rosenborg win31.7%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (19.2%).

First half

Actual: 1–1

Bodo/Glimt lead at half-time46.0%

Level at half-time37.3%

Rosenborg lead at half-time16.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Bodo/Glimt ahead or level83.4%

12 — not level at half-time62.7%

X2 — level or Rosenborg ahead54.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 687 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Bodo/Glimt: at least 8Actual: 6
Rosenborg: at least 9Actual: 8

Corners

Bodo/Glimt: at least 5Actual: 13
Rosenborg: at least 3Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals63.8%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,726 of 2,749 predictions were correct (62.8%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 60.7%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Bodo/Glimt score2.29

Attack: Bodo/Glimt score above the league average (42% more).

Opponent's defence: Rosenborg's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.29 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Rosenborg score0.94

Attack: Rosenborg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Bodo/Glimt concede 25% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.94 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–110.8%2–010.6%1–19.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 687 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 85 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.