Eliteserien · Norway · Regular Season - 26

Brann–Tromso

4–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 27 October 2024 at 18:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Brann Stadion, Bergen

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

27'BrannN. Castro (assist: F. Myhre)
37'BrannE. Kornvig (assist: O. Didrik Blomberg)
54'BrannJ. Haugaard (own goal)
90+5'BrannB. Finne (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Brann		Tromso
15	Shots	12
6	Shots on target	3
9	Shots inside the box	4
3	Goalkeeper saves	3
3	Corners	3
2	Offsides	2
63%	Possession	37%
625	Passes	349
536	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Brann 1.89 · Tromso 1.05. On the pitch: 4-0.
Shots Brann 15 · Tromso 12; on target 6 and 3.
Brann kept the ball more (63%).

Referee

C. Moen→

3.09

yellows per match

0.06

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 56.9%: “Brann to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.89 for Brann, 1.05 for Tromso.
The highest double chance value is 80.7% (1X — Brann win or draw).
These values were computed from 686 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Brann to win56.9%

Draw23.8%

Tromso to win19.3%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,652 of 2,776 predictions were correct (59.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

7	Fouls	12

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

Brann lead at half-time40.1%

Level at half-time44.0%

Tromso lead at half-time15.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Brann ahead or level84.1%

12 — not level at half-time56.0%

X2 — level or Tromso ahead59.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 686 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Brann: at least 9Actual: 7
Tromso: at least 10Actual: 12

Corners

Brann: at least 7Actual: 3
Tromso: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Brann score1.89

Attack: Brann score above the league average (25% more).

Opponent's defence: Tromso's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.89 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Tromso score1.05

Attack: Tromso score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Brann's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.05 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.9%2–111.0%2–09.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.