Eliteserien · Norway · Regular Season - 26

Sarpsborg 08 FF–Viking

1–2

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 27 October 2024 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Sarpsborg Stadion, Sarpsberg

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

21'Sarpsborg 08 FFV. Halvorsen (assist: S. Ørjasæter)
43'VikingL. Salvesen (assist: V. Vevatne)
70'VikingG. Stensness (assist: Z. Tripic)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sarpsborg 08 FF		Viking
11	Shots	16
3	Shots on target	5
6	Shots inside the box	12
4	Goalkeeper saves	2
0	Corners	8
2	Offsides	3
52%	Possession	48%
471	Passes	404
382	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.50 · Viking 1.79. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Sarpsborg 08 FF 11 · Viking 16; on target 3 and 5.

Referee

K. Hagenes→

3.66

yellows per match

0.19

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 44.1%: “Viking to win”. Second comes “Sarpsborg 08 FF to win” at 31.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.50 for Sarpsborg 08 FF, 1.79 for Viking.
The highest double chance value is 75.3% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 681 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sarpsborg 08 FF to win31.2%

Draw24.7%

Viking to win44.1%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,296 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	12

3	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 764 of 1,176 predictions were correct (65.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Sarpsborg 08 FF win or draw55.9%

12 — any result other than a draw75.3%

X2 — draw or Viking win68.8%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (24.7%).

First half

Actual: 1–1

Sarpsborg 08 FF lead at half-time44.4%

Level at half-time38.1%

Viking lead at half-time17.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Sarpsborg 08 FF ahead or level82.5%

12 — not level at half-time61.9%

X2 — level or Viking ahead55.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 681 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Sarpsborg 08 FF: at least 11Actual: 14
Viking: at least 10Actual: 12

Corners

Sarpsborg 08 FF: at least 5
Viking: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals64.9%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,726 of 2,749 predictions were correct (62.8%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 60.5%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sarpsborg 08 FF score1.50

Attack: Sarpsborg 08 FF score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Viking's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.50 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Viking score1.79

Attack: Viking score above the league average (29% more).

Opponent's defence: Sarpsborg 08 FF concede 15% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.79 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.3%1–29.8%2–18.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 681 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 85 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.