Eliteserien · Norway · Regular Season - 26

Stromsgodset–Fredrikstad

2–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 26 October 2024 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Marienlyst Stadion, Drammen

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — only 2.3% between the top two

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

12'StromsgodsetJ. Therkelsen (assist: Gustav Valsvik)
55'StromsgodsetLogi Tomasson (assist: H. Stengel)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Stromsgodset		Fredrikstad
17	Shots	14
5	Shots on target	4
12	Shots inside the box	7
4	Goalkeeper saves	3
4	Corners	4
0	Offsides	1
46%	Possession	54%
478	Passes	572
385	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Stromsgodset 1.45 · Fredrikstad 1.40. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Stromsgodset 17 · Fredrikstad 14; on target 5 and 4.

Referee

D. Higraff→

2.36

yellows per match

0.14

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.6%: “Stromsgodset to win”. Second comes “Fredrikstad to win” at 35.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.45 for Stromsgodset, 1.40 for Fredrikstad.
The highest double chance value is 72.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 680 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Stromsgodset to win37.6%

Draw27.1%

Fredrikstad to win35.3%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,090 of 5,638 predictions were correct (37.1%). Accuracy record →

6	Fouls	6

3	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Stromsgodset lead at half-time27.6%

Level at half-time42.4%

Fredrikstad lead at half-time30.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Stromsgodset ahead or level70.0%

12 — not level at half-time57.6%

X2 — level or Fredrikstad ahead72.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 680 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Stromsgodset: at least 8Actual: 6
Fredrikstad: at least 9Actual: 6

Corners

Stromsgodset: at least 5Actual: 4
Fredrikstad: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Stromsgodset score1.45

Attack: Stromsgodset score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Fredrikstad's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.45 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Fredrikstad score1.40

Attack: Fredrikstad score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Stromsgodset's defence is close to the league average (1.12×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.40 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.5%2–19.3%1–28.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.