Eliteserien · Norway · Regular Season - 25

Viking–ODD Ballklubb

3–3

HT 1–2

Kick-off: Sunday, 20 October 2024 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: SR-Bank Arena, Stavanger

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 19%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

15'ODD BallklubbM. Rugland Ree (own goal)
18'ODD BallklubbS. Sinyan (assist: S. Johansen)
35'VikingH. Heggheim (assist: S. Svendsen)
79'VikingL. Salvesen
90'ODD BallklubbB. Njie (assist: F. Jørgensen)
90+5'VikingN. D'Agostino (assist: C. Cappis)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Viking		ODD Ballklubb
26	Shots	7
9	Shots on target	4
20	Shots inside the box	6
2	Goalkeeper saves	6
8	Corners	2
3	Offsides	3
66%	Possession	34%
536	Passes	290
448	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Viking 2.28 · ODD Ballklubb 0.84. On the pitch: 3-3.
Shots Viking 26 · ODD Ballklubb 7; on target 9 and 4.
Viking kept the ball more (66%).

Referee

M. Grøtta→

3.33

yellows per match

0.10

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 70.4%: “Viking to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 18.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.28 for Viking, 0.84 for ODD Ballklubb.
The highest double chance value is 89.1% (1X — Viking win or draw).
These values were computed from 675 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Viking to win70.4%

Draw18.7%

ODD Ballklubb to win10.9%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 947 of 1,266 predictions were correct (74.8%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

15	Fouls	12

2	Yellow cards	5

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–2

Viking lead at half-time33.0%

Level at half-time42.8%

ODD Ballklubb lead at half-time24.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Viking ahead or level75.8%

12 — not level at half-time57.2%

X2 — level or ODD Ballklubb ahead67.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 675 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Viking: at least 11Actual: 15
ODD Ballklubb: at least 9Actual: 12

Corners

Viking: at least 6Actual: 8
ODD Ballklubb: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Viking score2.28

Attack: Viking score above the league average (26% more).

Opponent's defence: ODD Ballklubb's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.28 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals ODD Ballklubb score0.84

Attack: ODD Ballklubb score below the league average (25% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Viking's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.84 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–011.8%2–110.6%1–19.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.