Eliteserien · Norway · Regular Season - 25

Kristiansund BK–Stromsgodset

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 20 October 2024 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Kristiansund Stadion, Kristiansand

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 27%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
Kristiansund BK		Stromsgodset
18	Shots	9
1	Shots on target	3
12	Shots inside the box	5
3	Goalkeeper saves	1
7	Corners	8
2	Offsides	2
43%	Possession	57%
352	Passes	477
277	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Kristiansund BK 1.54 · Stromsgodset 1.39. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Kristiansund BK 18 · Stromsgodset 9; on target 1 and 3.
Stromsgodset kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

M. Lien→

2.39

yellows per match

0.11

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.1%: “Kristiansund BK to win”. Second comes “Stromsgodset to win” at 33.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.54 for Kristiansund BK, 1.39 for Stromsgodset.
The highest double chance value is 73.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 675 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Kristiansund BK to win40.1%

Draw26.6%

Stromsgodset to win33.4%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,296 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	10

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Kristiansund BK lead at half-time35.5%

Level at half-time40.8%

Stromsgodset lead at half-time23.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Kristiansund BK ahead or level76.3%

12 — not level at half-time59.2%

X2 — level or Stromsgodset ahead64.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 675 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Kristiansund BK: at least 10Actual: 12
Stromsgodset: at least 10Actual: 10

Corners

Kristiansund BK: at least 4Actual: 7
Stromsgodset: at least 5Actual: 8

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Kristiansund BK score1.54

Attack: Kristiansund BK score below the league average (19% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Stromsgodset's defence is close to the league average (1.13×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.54 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Stromsgodset score1.39

Attack: Stromsgodset score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Kristiansund BK's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.39 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.0%2–19.6%1–28.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.