Eliteserien · Norway · Regular Season - 24

Bodo/Glimt–Kristiansund BK

4–0

HT 3–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 29 September 2024 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Aspmyra Stadion, Bodø

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

25'Bodo/GlimtJ. Hauge (penalty)
29'Bodo/GlimtM. Lansing (own goal)
45'Bodo/GlimtJ. Hauge (assist: P. Zinckernagel)
63'Bodo/GlimtP. Zinckernagel (assist: I. Määttä)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Bodo/Glimt		Kristiansund BK
14	Shots	10
4	Shots on target	5
12	Shots inside the box	8
5	Goalkeeper saves	1
10	Corners	6
3	Offsides	0
72%	Possession	28%
808	Passes	317
742	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Bodo/Glimt 2.51 · Kristiansund BK 0.72. On the pitch: 4-0.
Shots Bodo/Glimt 14 · Kristiansund BK 10; on target 4 and 5.
Bodo/Glimt kept the ball more (72%).

Referee

S. Amland→

3.46

yellows per match

0.08

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 77.3%: “Bodo/Glimt to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 15.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.51 for Bodo/Glimt, 0.72 for Kristiansund BK.
The highest double chance value is 92.7% (1X — Bodo/Glimt win or draw).
These values were computed from 667 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Bodo/Glimt to win77.3%

Draw15.4%

Kristiansund BK to win7.3%

When the model has said 75–80% in the past, 735 of 908 predictions were correct (80.9%). Accuracy record →

6	Fouls	14

0	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 3–0

Bodo/Glimt lead at half-time36.8%

Level at half-time40.9%

Kristiansund BK lead at half-time22.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Bodo/Glimt ahead or level77.6%

12 — not level at half-time59.1%

X2 — level or Kristiansund BK ahead63.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 667 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Bodo/Glimt: at least 8Actual: 6
Kristiansund BK: at least 9Actual: 14

Corners

Bodo/Glimt: at least 8Actual: 10
Kristiansund BK: at least 2Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Bodo/Glimt score2.51

Attack: Bodo/Glimt score above the league average (42% more).

Opponent's defence: Kristiansund BK's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.51 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Kristiansund BK score0.72

Attack: Kristiansund BK score below the league average (19% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Bodo/Glimt concede 23% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.72 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–012.8%3–010.8%2–19.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.