Eliteserien · Norway · Regular Season - 23

Kristiansund BK–ODD Ballklubb

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 22 September 2024 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Kristiansund Stadion, Kristiansand

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 27%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
Kristiansund BK		ODD Ballklubb
14	Shots	6
3	Shots on target	1
6	Shots inside the box	4
1	Goalkeeper saves	3
3	Corners	5
3	Offsides	1
53%	Possession	47%
473	Passes	427
392	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Kristiansund BK 1.60 · ODD Ballklubb 1.15. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Kristiansund BK 14 · ODD Ballklubb 6; on target 3 and 1.

Referee

K. Hagenes→

3.68

yellows per match

0.19

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 47.2%: “Kristiansund BK to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.60 for Kristiansund BK, 1.15 for ODD Ballklubb.
The highest double chance value is 73.9% (1X — Kristiansund BK win or draw).
These values were computed from 658 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Kristiansund BK to win47.2%

Draw26.7%

ODD Ballklubb to win26.1%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,196 of 4,685 predictions were correct (46.9%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	12

0	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Kristiansund BK lead at half-time35.8%

Level at half-time42.6%

ODD Ballklubb lead at half-time21.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Kristiansund BK ahead or level78.3%

12 — not level at half-time57.4%

X2 — level or ODD Ballklubb ahead64.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 658 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Kristiansund BK: at least 11Actual: 12
ODD Ballklubb: at least 9Actual: 12

Corners

Kristiansund BK: at least 4Actual: 3
ODD Ballklubb: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Kristiansund BK score1.60

Attack: Kristiansund BK score below the league average (17% fewer).

Opponent's defence: ODD Ballklubb's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.60 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals ODD Ballklubb score1.15

Attack: ODD Ballklubb score below the league average (24% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Kristiansund BK's defence is close to the league average (1.09×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.15 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.5%2–110.4%1–09.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.