Eliteserien · Norway · Regular Season - 23

Stromsgodset–Sarpsborg 08 FF

2–1

HT 2–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 21 September 2024 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Marienlyst Stadion, Drammen

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

6'StromsgodsetJ. Therkelsen (assist: E. Andersen)
27'StromsgodsetH. Stengel (penalty)
31'Sarpsborg 08 FFP. Reinhardsen (assist: S. Johansen)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Stromsgodset		Sarpsborg 08 FF
16	Shots	16
6	Shots on target	6
12	Shots inside the box	9
4	Goalkeeper saves	4
4	Corners	7
1	Offsides	0
32%	Possession	68%
266	Passes	596
192	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Stromsgodset 1.77 · Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.50. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Stromsgodset 16 · Sarpsborg 08 FF 16; on target 6 and 6.
Sarpsborg 08 FF kept the ball more (68%).

Referee

M. Grøtta→

3.26

yellows per match

0.11

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.6%: “Stromsgodset to win”. Second comes “Sarpsborg 08 FF to win” at 31.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.77 for Stromsgodset, 1.50 for Sarpsborg 08 FF.
The highest double chance value is 75.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 655 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Stromsgodset to win43.6%

Draw24.8%

Sarpsborg 08 FF to win31.6%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,296 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	13

3	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–1

Stromsgodset lead at half-time27.1%

Level at half-time39.7%

Sarpsborg 08 FF lead at half-time33.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Stromsgodset ahead or level66.8%

12 — not level at half-time60.3%

X2 — level or Sarpsborg 08 FF ahead72.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 655 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Stromsgodset: at least 9Actual: 15
Sarpsborg 08 FF: at least 10Actual: 13

Corners

Stromsgodset: at least 5Actual: 4
Sarpsborg 08 FF: at least 4Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Stromsgodset score1.77

Attack: Stromsgodset score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sarpsborg 08 FF concede 17% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.77 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Sarpsborg 08 FF score1.50

Attack: Sarpsborg 08 FF score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Stromsgodset's defence is close to the league average (1.13×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.50 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.4%2–19.8%1–28.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.