Eliteserien · Norway · Regular Season - 22

Haugesund–Stromsgodset

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 15 September 2024 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Haugesund Sparebank Arena, Haugesund

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — only 4.8% between the top two

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
Haugesund		Stromsgodset
27	Shots	8
6	Shots on target	2
16	Shots inside the box	7
3	Goalkeeper saves	5
11	Corners	0
0	Offsides	0
63%	Possession	37%
539	Passes	331
472	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Haugesund 1.53 · Stromsgodset 1.42. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Haugesund 27 · Stromsgodset 8; on target 6 and 2.
Haugesund kept the ball more (63%).

Referee

K. Hagenes→

3.68

yellows per match

0.20

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.1%: “Haugesund to win”. Second comes “Stromsgodset to win” at 34.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.53 for Haugesund, 1.42 for Stromsgodset.
The highest double chance value is 73.5% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 649 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Haugesund to win39.1%

Draw26.5%

Stromsgodset to win34.4%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,090 of 5,638 predictions were correct (37.1%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	7

3	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Haugesund lead at half-time26.9%

Level at half-time43.5%

Stromsgodset lead at half-time29.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Haugesund ahead or level70.5%

12 — not level at half-time56.5%

X2 — level or Stromsgodset ahead73.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 649 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Haugesund: at least 9Actual: 11
Stromsgodset: at least 9Actual: 7

Corners

Haugesund: at least 5
Stromsgodset: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Haugesund score1.53

Attack: Haugesund score below the league average (19% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Stromsgodset's defence is close to the league average (1.12×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.53 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Stromsgodset score1.42

Attack: Stromsgodset score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Haugesund's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.42 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.0%2–19.5%1–28.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.