Eliteserien · Norway · Regular Season - 21

Ham-Kam–Sandefjord

1–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 1 September 2024 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Briskeby Arena, Hamar

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 26%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

62'Ham-KamV. Kongsro (assist: M. Ofkir)
69'SandefjordS. Sigurðarson (assist: F. Loftesnes-Bjune)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Ham-Kam		Sandefjord
11	Shots	15
1	Shots on target	4
9	Shots inside the box	8
3	Goalkeeper saves	0
7	Corners	6
1	Offsides	1
37%	Possession	63%
309	Passes	561
219	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Ham-Kam 1.58 · Sandefjord 1.36. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Ham-Kam 11 · Sandefjord 15; on target 1 and 4.
Sandefjord kept the ball more (63%).

Referee

M. Lien→

2.44

yellows per match

0.11

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.7%: “Ham-Kam to win”. Second comes “Sandefjord to win” at 31.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.58 for Ham-Kam, 1.36 for Sandefjord.
The highest double chance value is 73.6% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 639 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Ham-Kam to win41.7%

Draw26.4%

Sandefjord to win31.9%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,296 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	11

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Ham-Kam lead at half-time34.1%

Level at half-time42.0%

Sandefjord lead at half-time23.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Ham-Kam ahead or level76.2%

12 — not level at half-time58.0%

X2 — level or Sandefjord ahead65.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 639 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Ham-Kam: at least 9Actual: 11
Sandefjord: at least 9Actual: 11

Corners

Ham-Kam: at least 5Actual: 7
Sandefjord: at least 4Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Ham-Kam score1.58

Attack: Ham-Kam score below the league average (18% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Sandefjord concede 16% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.58 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Sandefjord score1.36

Attack: Sandefjord score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Ham-Kam's defence is close to the league average (1.04×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.36 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.0%2–19.8%1–28.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.