Eliteserien · Norway · Regular Season - 21

Rosenborg–Molde

2–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 1 September 2024 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Lerkendal Stadion, Trondheim

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 26%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

5'MoldeO. Brynhildsen (assist: F. Ihler)
50'RosenborgA. Pereira (assist: E. Ceïde)
90+2'RosenborgE. Tagseth (assist: Ole Christian Saeter)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Rosenborg		Molde
16	Shots	5
6	Shots on target	1
10	Shots inside the box	3
0	Goalkeeper saves	4
6	Corners	2
2	Offsides	0
71%	Possession	29%
603	Passes	245
516	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Rosenborg 1.27 · Molde 1.77. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Rosenborg 16 · Molde 5; on target 6 and 1.
Rosenborg kept the ball more (71%).

Referee

Tore Hansen→

3.57

yellows per match

0.15

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 48.7%: “Molde to win”. Second comes “Rosenborg to win” at 26.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.27 for Rosenborg, 1.77 for Molde.
The highest double chance value is 74.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 639 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Rosenborg to win26.1%

Draw25.1%

Molde to win48.7%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,070 of 4,392 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	9

3	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Rosenborg lead at half-time18.6%

Level at half-time37.8%

Molde lead at half-time43.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Rosenborg ahead or level56.3%

12 — not level at half-time62.2%

X2 — level or Molde ahead81.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 639 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Rosenborg: at least 9Actual: 11
Molde: at least 10Actual: 9

Corners

Rosenborg: at least 4Actual: 6
Molde: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Rosenborg score1.27

Attack: Rosenborg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Molde concede 28% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.27 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Molde score1.77

Attack: Molde score above the league average (27% more).

Opponent's defence: Rosenborg's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.77 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.2%1–210.5%0–17.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.