Eliteserien · Norway · Regular Season - 21

Kristiansund BK–Haugesund

2–2

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 1 September 2024 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Kristiansund Stadion, Kristiansand

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 27%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

15'Kristiansund BKK. Lien (assist: D. Tufekcic)
38'HaugesundS. Innvaer
46'Kristiansund BKJ. Isaksen (assist: M. Rakneberg)
75'HaugesundJ. Eskesen (assist: Troy Nyhammer)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Kristiansund BK		Haugesund
12	Shots	14
4	Shots on target	3
7	Shots inside the box	6
1	Goalkeeper saves	2
2	Corners	3
1	Offsides	1
44%	Possession	56%
391	Passes	506
320	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Kristiansund BK 1.56 · Haugesund 1.26. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots Kristiansund BK 12 · Haugesund 14; on target 4 and 3.
Haugesund kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

M. Aslam→

3.90

yellows per match

0.16

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.7%: “Kristiansund BK to win”. Second comes “Haugesund to win” at 29.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.56 for Kristiansund BK, 1.26 for Haugesund.
The highest double chance value is 73.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 639 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Kristiansund BK to win43.7%

Draw26.8%

Haugesund to win29.5%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,296 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	13

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Kristiansund BK lead at half-time42.1%

Level at half-time42.6%

Haugesund lead at half-time15.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Kristiansund BK ahead or level84.7%

12 — not level at half-time57.4%

X2 — level or Haugesund ahead57.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 639 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Kristiansund BK: at least 9Actual: 15
Haugesund: at least 10Actual: 13

Corners

Kristiansund BK: at least 5Actual: 2
Haugesund: at least 5Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Kristiansund BK score1.56

Attack: Kristiansund BK score below the league average (15% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Haugesund's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.56 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Haugesund score1.26

Attack: Haugesund score below the league average (18% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Kristiansund BK's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.26 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.4%2–110.0%1–08.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.