Eliteserien · Norway · Regular Season - 21

Fredrikstad–ODD Ballklubb

2–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 31 August 2024 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Nye Fredrikstad Stadion, Fredrikstad

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

59'FredrikstadM. Bjorlo (penalty)
82'FredrikstadH. Johansen (assist: D. Eid)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Fredrikstad		ODD Ballklubb
12	Shots	8
6	Shots on target	1
6	Shots inside the box	6
1	Goalkeeper saves	4
6	Corners	3
2	Offsides	0
52%	Possession	48%
384	Passes	343
289	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Fredrikstad 1.68 · ODD Ballklubb 0.99. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Fredrikstad 12 · ODD Ballklubb 8; on target 6 and 1.

Referee

M. Grøtta→

3.27

yellows per match

0.11

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 53.5%: “Fredrikstad to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.68 for Fredrikstad, 0.99 for ODD Ballklubb.
The highest double chance value is 79.4% (1X — Fredrikstad win or draw).
These values were computed from 638 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Fredrikstad to win53.5%

Draw25.9%

ODD Ballklubb to win20.6%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,798 of 3,471 predictions were correct (51.8%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	10

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Fredrikstad lead at half-time38.1%

Level at half-time41.9%

ODD Ballklubb lead at half-time19.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Fredrikstad ahead or level80.1%

12 — not level at half-time58.1%

X2 — level or ODD Ballklubb ahead61.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 638 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Fredrikstad: at least 10Actual: 14
ODD Ballklubb: at least 8Actual: 10

Corners

Fredrikstad: at least 6Actual: 6
ODD Ballklubb: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Fredrikstad score1.68

Attack: Fredrikstad score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: ODD Ballklubb's defence is close to the league average (1.09×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.68 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals ODD Ballklubb score0.99

Attack: ODD Ballklubb score below the league average (23% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Fredrikstad's defence is close to the league average (0.86×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.99 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.1%1–010.9%2–110.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.