Eliteserien · Norway · Regular Season - 20

Viking–Stromsgodset

5–2

HT 2–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 25 August 2024 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: SR-Bank Arena, Stavanger

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

6'VikingZ. Tripic (assist: J. Bell)
29'StromsgodsetE. Melkersen (assist: L. Vilsvik)
36'VikingZ. Tripic (penalty)
58'VikingL. Salvesen (assist: Z. Tripic)
61'VikingS. Svendsen (assist: Hampus Finndell)
74'StromsgodsetJ. Therkelsen

Match statistics

Match statistics
Viking		Stromsgodset
29	Shots	8
11	Shots on target	3
23	Shots inside the box	6
1	Goalkeeper saves	6
9	Corners	1
2	Offsides	3
60%	Possession	40%
468	Passes	325
396	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Viking 1.95 · Stromsgodset 1.15. On the pitch: 5-2.
Shots Viking 29 · Stromsgodset 8; on target 11 and 3.
Viking kept the ball more (60%).

Referee

M. Grøtta→

3.20

yellows per match

0.11

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 55.7%: “Viking to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.95 for Viking, 1.15 for Stromsgodset.
The highest double chance value is 79.2% (1X — Viking win or draw).
These values were computed from 632 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Viking to win55.7%

Draw23.5%

Stromsgodset to win20.8%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,651 of 2,775 predictions were correct (59.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

10	Fouls	11

1	Yellow cards	5

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–1

Viking lead at half-time31.1%

Level at half-time42.3%

Stromsgodset lead at half-time26.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Viking ahead or level73.4%

12 — not level at half-time57.7%

X2 — level or Stromsgodset ahead68.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 632 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Viking: at least 10Actual: 10
Stromsgodset: at least 10Actual: 11

Corners

Viking: at least 6Actual: 9
Stromsgodset: at least 4Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Viking score1.95

Attack: Viking score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Stromsgodset's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.95 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Stromsgodset score1.15

Attack: Stromsgodset score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Viking's defence is close to the league average (0.90×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.15 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.4%2–110.9%2–08.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.