Eliteserien · Norway · Regular Season - 19

Ham-Kam–ODD Ballklubb

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 18 August 2024 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Briskeby Arena, Hamar

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

62'Ham-KamMoses Mawa (assist: T. Soras)
68'Ham-KamF. Sjolstad · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Ham-Kam		ODD Ballklubb
18	Shots	17
5	Shots on target	1
11	Shots inside the box	9
1	Goalkeeper saves	4
4	Corners	11
2	Offsides	0
38%	Possession	62%
330	Passes	513
256	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Ham-Kam 1.51 · ODD Ballklubb 1.22. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Ham-Kam 18 · ODD Ballklubb 17; on target 5 and 1.
ODD Ballklubb kept the ball more (62%).

Referee

Tore Hansen→

3.67

yellows per match

0.14

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.3%: “Ham-Kam to win”. Second comes “ODD Ballklubb to win” at 29.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.51 for Ham-Kam, 1.22 for ODD Ballklubb.
The highest double chance value is 72.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 625 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Ham-Kam to win43.3%

Draw27.3%

ODD Ballklubb to win29.4%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,296 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	6

2	Yellow cards	0

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Ham-Kam lead at half-time28.7%

Level at half-time42.1%

ODD Ballklubb lead at half-time29.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Ham-Kam ahead or level70.8%

12 — not level at half-time57.9%

X2 — level or ODD Ballklubb ahead71.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 625 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Ham-Kam: at least 10Actual: 11
ODD Ballklubb: at least 9Actual: 6

Corners

Ham-Kam: at least 6Actual: 4
ODD Ballklubb: at least 4Actual: 11

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Ham-Kam score1.51

Attack: Ham-Kam score below the league average (17% fewer).

Opponent's defence: ODD Ballklubb's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.51 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals ODD Ballklubb score1.22

Attack: ODD Ballklubb score below the league average (20% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Ham-Kam's defence is close to the league average (1.03×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.22 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.7%2–110.0%1–08.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.