Eliteserien · Norway · Regular Season - 18

Lillestrom–Molde

1–2

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 11 August 2024 at 17:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Åråsen Stadion, Lillestrom

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

10'LillestromY. Ibrahimaj
45+1'MoldeF. Ihler (assist: K. Eriksen)
90+1'MoldeK. Eriksen (assist: H. Stenevik)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Lillestrom		Molde
7	Shots	9
3	Shots on target	3
3	Shots inside the box	4
1	Goalkeeper saves	2
2	Corners	3
0	Offsides	1
59%	Possession	41%
530	Passes	381
417	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Lillestrom 1.23 · Molde 1.68. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Lillestrom 7 · Molde 9; on target 3 and 3.
Lillestrom kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

Tore Hansen→

3.64

yellows per match

0.14

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 47.3%: “Molde to win”. Second comes “Lillestrom to win” at 26.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.23 for Lillestrom, 1.68 for Molde.
The highest double chance value is 74.0% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 621 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Lillestrom to win26.7%

Draw26.0%

Molde to win47.3%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,070 of 4,392 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	10

4	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Lillestrom lead at half-time19.3%

Level at half-time39.1%

Molde lead at half-time41.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Lillestrom ahead or level58.4%

12 — not level at half-time60.9%

X2 — level or Molde ahead80.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 621 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Lillestrom: at least 8Actual: 14
Molde: at least 10Actual: 10

Corners

Lillestrom: at least 5Actual: 2
Molde: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Lillestrom score1.23

Attack: Lillestrom score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Molde concede 25% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.23 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Molde score1.68

Attack: Molde score above the league average (25% more).

Opponent's defence: Lillestrom's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.68 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.8%1–210.4%0–18.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.