Eliteserien · Norway · Regular Season - 18

Haugesund–Ham-Kam

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 10 August 2024 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Haugesund Sparebank Arena, Haugesund

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 34%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

51'Ham-KamMoses Mawa (assist: K. Onsrud)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Haugesund		Ham-Kam
20	Shots	10
6	Shots on target	5
10	Shots inside the box	6
4	Goalkeeper saves	5
9	Corners	2
4	Offsides	1
70%	Possession	30%
609	Passes	255
547	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Haugesund 1.46 · Ham-Kam 1.34. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Haugesund 20 · Ham-Kam 10; on target 6 and 5.
Haugesund kept the ball more (70%).

Referee

M. Grøtta→

3.16

yellows per match

0.12

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.2%: “Haugesund to win”. Second comes “Ham-Kam to win” at 33.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.46 for Haugesund, 1.34 for Ham-Kam.
The highest double chance value is 72.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 617 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Haugesund to win39.2%

Draw27.3%

Ham-Kam to win33.6%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,090 of 5,638 predictions were correct (37.1%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	10

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Haugesund lead at half-time23.5%

Level at half-time43.9%

Ham-Kam lead at half-time32.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Haugesund ahead or level67.4%

12 — not level at half-time56.1%

X2 — level or Ham-Kam ahead76.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 617 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Haugesund: at least 9Actual: 12
Ham-Kam: at least 9Actual: 10

Corners

Haugesund: at least 5Actual: 9
Ham-Kam: at least 4Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Haugesund score1.46

Attack: Haugesund score below the league average (19% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Ham-Kam's defence is close to the league average (1.05×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.46 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Ham-Kam score1.34

Attack: Ham-Kam score below the league average (17% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Haugesund's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.34 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.6%2–19.5%1–28.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.