Eliteserien · Norway · Regular Season - 17

Rosenborg–Tromso

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 4 August 2024 at 17:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Lerkendal Stadion, Trondheim

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

64'RosenborgN. Holm

Match statistics

Match statistics
Rosenborg		Tromso
25	Shots	6
9	Shots on target	2
10	Shots inside the box	5
2	Goalkeeper saves	8
8	Corners	2
0	Offsides	1
56%	Possession	44%
508	Passes	407
425	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Rosenborg 1.58 · Tromso 1.37. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Rosenborg 25 · Tromso 6; on target 9 and 2.
Rosenborg kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

M. Aslam→

3.90

yellows per match

0.17

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.6%: “Rosenborg to win”. Second comes “Tromso to win” at 32.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.58 for Rosenborg, 1.37 for Tromso.
The highest double chance value is 73.6% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 615 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Rosenborg to win41.6%

Draw26.4%

Tromso to win32.0%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,296 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	10

2	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Rosenborg lead at half-time32.1%

Level at half-time42.8%

Tromso lead at half-time25.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Rosenborg ahead or level74.9%

12 — not level at half-time57.2%

X2 — level or Tromso ahead67.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 615 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Rosenborg: at least 9Actual: 12
Tromso: at least 10Actual: 10

Corners

Rosenborg: at least 5Actual: 8
Tromso: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Rosenborg score1.58

Attack: Rosenborg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Tromso's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.58 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Tromso score1.37

Attack: Tromso score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Rosenborg's defence is close to the league average (1.14×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.37 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.9%2–19.8%1–28.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.