Eliteserien · Norway · Regular Season - 17

Sarpsborg 08 FF–Sandefjord

2–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 4 August 2024 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Sarpsborg Stadion, Sarpsberg

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

13'Sarpsborg 08 FFS. Johansen (penalty)
48'SandefjordL. Mettler (assist: S. Mork)
68'Sarpsborg 08 FFV. Halvorsen (assist: S. Ørjasæter)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sarpsborg 08 FF		Sandefjord
17	Shots	14
5	Shots on target	5
14	Shots inside the box	6
3	Goalkeeper saves	3
3	Corners	3
1	Offsides	3
48%	Possession	52%
426	Passes	460
356	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.96 · Sandefjord 1.45. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Sarpsborg 08 FF 17 · Sandefjord 14; on target 5 and 5.

Referee

O. Nilsen→

3.18

yellows per match

0.16

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 49.3%: “Sarpsborg 08 FF to win”. Second comes “Sandefjord to win” at 27.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.96 for Sarpsborg 08 FF, 1.45 for Sandefjord.
The highest double chance value is 76.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 610 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sarpsborg 08 FF to win49.3%

Draw23.6%

Sandefjord to win27.1%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,070 of 4,392 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

18	Fouls	7

1	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Sarpsborg 08 FF lead at half-time42.6%

Level at half-time37.1%

Sandefjord lead at half-time20.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Sarpsborg 08 FF ahead or level79.8%

12 — not level at half-time62.9%

X2 — level or Sandefjord ahead57.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 610 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Sarpsborg 08 FF: at least 10Actual: 18
Sandefjord: at least 10Actual: 7

Corners

Sarpsborg 08 FF: at least 6Actual: 3
Sandefjord: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sarpsborg 08 FF score1.96

Attack: Sarpsborg 08 FF score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sandefjord concede 19% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.96 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Sandefjord score1.45

Attack: Sandefjord score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sarpsborg 08 FF concede 18% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.45 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–110.5%2–110.1%2–27.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.