Eliteserien · Norway · Regular Season - 17

Bodo/Glimt–Haugesund

4–2

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 3 August 2024 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Aspmyra Stadion, Bodø

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

20'HaugesundS. Tounekti
45+1'Bodo/GlimtA. Helmersen (assist: P. Berg)
50'HaugesundM. Hope (assist: S. Tounekti)
55'Bodo/GlimtK. Hogh (assist: F. Bjorkan)
62'Bodo/GlimtP. Berg (assist: H. Evjen)
74'Bodo/GlimtK. Hogh (assist: H. Evjen)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Bodo/Glimt		Haugesund
24	Shots	13
10	Shots on target	6
15	Shots inside the box	8
4	Goalkeeper saves	6
11	Corners	2
1	Offsides	0
66%	Possession	34%
655	Passes	346
601	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Bodo/Glimt 2.48 · Haugesund 0.73. On the pitch: 4-2.
Shots Bodo/Glimt 24 · Haugesund 13; on target 10 and 6.
Bodo/Glimt kept the ball more (66%).

Referee

M. Lien→

2.41

yellows per match

0.12

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 76.6%: “Bodo/Glimt to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 15.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.48 for Bodo/Glimt, 0.73 for Haugesund.
The highest double chance value is 92.4% (1X — Bodo/Glimt win or draw).
These values were computed from 609 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Bodo/Glimt to win76.6%

Draw15.8%

Haugesund to win7.6%

When the model has said 75–80% in the past, 735 of 908 predictions were correct (80.9%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

9	Fouls	7

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Bodo/Glimt lead at half-time48.9%

Level at half-time38.5%

Haugesund lead at half-time12.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Bodo/Glimt ahead or level87.4%

12 — not level at half-time61.5%

X2 — level or Haugesund ahead51.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 609 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Bodo/Glimt: at least 8Actual: 9
Haugesund: at least 9Actual: 7

Corners

Bodo/Glimt: at least 7Actual: 11
Haugesund: at least 2Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Bodo/Glimt score2.48

Attack: Bodo/Glimt score above the league average (44% more).

Opponent's defence: Haugesund's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.48 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Haugesund score0.73

Attack: Haugesund score below the league average (20% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Bodo/Glimt concede 27% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.73 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–012.8%3–010.6%2–19.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.