Eliteserien · Norway · Regular Season - 15

Sarpsborg 08 FF–Brann

1–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 20 July 2024 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Sarpsborg Stadion, Sarpsberg

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 24%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

90+1'Sarpsborg 08 FFH. Meister (assist: Anders Hiim)
90+4'BrannA. Heggebø (assist: M. Warming)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sarpsborg 08 FF		Brann
18	Shots	7
7	Shots on target	1
13	Shots inside the box	6
0	Goalkeeper saves	6
6	Corners	7
1	Offsides	4
44%	Possession	56%
292	Passes	382
210	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.48 · Brann 1.94. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Sarpsborg 08 FF 18 · Brann 7; on target 7 and 1.
Brann kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

M. Lien→

2.30

yellows per match

0.12

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 48.1%: “Brann to win”. Second comes “Sarpsborg 08 FF to win” at 28.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.48 for Sarpsborg 08 FF, 1.94 for Brann.
The highest double chance value is 76.3% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 597 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sarpsborg 08 FF to win28.1%

Draw23.7%

Brann to win48.1%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,069 of 4,390 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	13

3	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Sarpsborg 08 FF lead at half-time22.9%

Level at half-time40.8%

Brann lead at half-time36.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Sarpsborg 08 FF ahead or level63.7%

12 — not level at half-time59.2%

X2 — level or Brann ahead77.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 597 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Sarpsborg 08 FF: at least 11Actual: 15
Brann: at least 10Actual: 13

Corners

Sarpsborg 08 FF: at least 5Actual: 6
Brann: at least 5Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sarpsborg 08 FF score1.48

Attack: Sarpsborg 08 FF score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Brann's defence is close to the league average (0.90×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.48 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Brann score1.94

Attack: Brann score above the league average (24% more).

Opponent's defence: Sarpsborg 08 FF concede 21% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.94 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–110.5%1–210.0%2–27.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.