Ligat Ha'al · Israel · Championship Round - 10

Maccabi Netanya–Maccabi Haifa

2–3

HT 2–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 24 May 2025 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Miriam Stadium, Netanya

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

1'Maccabi HaifaX. Severina (assist: A. Muhammad)
8'Maccabi NetanyaF. Vargas (assist: O. Bilu)
25'Maccabi NetanyaA. Cohen (assist: O. Bilu)
60'Maccabi HaifaE. Amir (assist: Dia Saba)
65'Maccabi HaifaG. Melamed

Match statistics

Match statistics
Maccabi Netanya		Maccabi Haifa
14	Shots	19
4	Shots on target	9
8	Shots inside the box	11
6	Goalkeeper saves	2
5	Corners	6
2	Offsides	1
50%	Possession	50%
418	Passes	412
353	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Maccabi Netanya 1.24 · Maccabi Haifa 1.89. On the pitch: 2-3.
Shots Maccabi Netanya 14 · Maccabi Haifa 19; on target 4 and 9.

Referee

R. Geva→

3.75

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 52.3%: “Maccabi Haifa to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.24 for Maccabi Netanya, 1.89 for Maccabi Haifa.
The highest double chance value is 76.4% (X2 — draw or Maccabi Haifa win).
These values were computed from 633 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Maccabi Netanya to win23.6%

Draw24.1%

Maccabi Haifa to win52.3%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,798 of 3,471 predictions were correct (51.8%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	6

0	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–1

Maccabi Netanya lead at half-time22.6%

Level at half-time39.3%

Maccabi Haifa lead at half-time38.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Maccabi Netanya ahead or level62.0%

12 — not level at half-time60.7%

X2 — level or Maccabi Haifa ahead77.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 632 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Maccabi Netanya: at least 13Actual: 9
Maccabi Haifa: at least 11Actual: 6

Corners

Maccabi Netanya: at least 3Actual: 5
Maccabi Haifa: at least 4Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Maccabi Netanya score1.24

Attack: Maccabi Netanya score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Maccabi Haifa's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.24 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Maccabi Haifa score1.89

Attack: Maccabi Haifa score above the league average (42% more).

Opponent's defence: Maccabi Netanya's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.89 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.6%1–210.7%0–27.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.