Ligat Ha'al · Israel · Championship Round - 10

Hapoel Beer Sheva–Hapoel Haifa

5–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 24 May 2025 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

30'Hapoel Beer ShevaA. Turgeman
45+2'Hapoel Beer ShevaIuri Medeiros (assist: A. Ganah)
46'Hapoel Beer ShevaK. Kangwa (assist: Iuri Medeiros)
87'Hapoel Beer ShevaD. Biton (assist: A. Garita)
89'Hapoel Beer ShevaE. Peretz (assist: A. Garita)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Hapoel Beer Sheva		Hapoel Haifa
30	Shots	6
12	Shots on target	1
20	Shots inside the box	3
1	Goalkeeper saves	7
8	Corners	0
2	Offsides	0
65%	Possession	35%
549	Passes	303
488	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Hapoel Beer Sheva 1.88 · Hapoel Haifa 0.87. On the pitch: 5-0.
Shots Hapoel Beer Sheva 30 · Hapoel Haifa 6; on target 12 and 1.
Hapoel Beer Sheva kept the ball more (65%).

Referee

I. Layba→

3.31

yellows per match

0.29

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 61.4%: “Hapoel Beer Sheva to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.88 for Hapoel Beer Sheva, 0.87 for Hapoel Haifa.
The highest double chance value is 84.6% (1X — Hapoel Beer Sheva win or draw).
These values were computed from 633 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Hapoel Beer Sheva to win61.4%

Draw23.2%

Hapoel Haifa to win15.4%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,247 of 1,995 predictions were correct (62.5%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	13

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

Hapoel Beer Sheva lead at half-time29.0%

Level at half-time42.6%

Hapoel Haifa lead at half-time28.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Hapoel Beer Sheva ahead or level71.6%

12 — not level at half-time57.4%

X2 — level or Hapoel Haifa ahead71.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 632 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Hapoel Beer Sheva: at least 12Actual: 15
Hapoel Haifa: at least 11Actual: 13

Corners

Hapoel Beer Sheva: at least 4
Hapoel Haifa: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Hapoel Beer Sheva score1.88

Attack: Hapoel Beer Sheva score above the league average (43% more).

Opponent's defence: Hapoel Haifa's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.88 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Hapoel Haifa score0.87

Attack: Hapoel Haifa score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Hapoel Beer Sheva concede 32% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.87 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.8%2–011.6%1–011.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.