Ligat Ha'al · Israel · Relegation Round - 7

Ironi Tiberias–Maccabi Petah Tikva

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 10 May 2025 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Green Stadium, Nazareth Illit

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What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Ironi Tiberias 1.24 · Maccabi Petah Tikva 1.15. On the pitch: 0-0.

Referee

S. Levi→

4.88

yellows per match

0.28

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.5%: “Ironi Tiberias to win”. Second comes “Maccabi Petah Tikva to win” at 32.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.24 for Ironi Tiberias, 1.15 for Maccabi Petah Tikva.
The highest double chance value is 70.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 627 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Ironi Tiberias to win37.5%

Draw29.8%

Maccabi Petah Tikva to win32.7%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,227 of 6,017 predictions were correct (37.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Ironi Tiberias win or draw67.3%

12 — any result other than a draw70.2%

X2 — draw or Maccabi Petah Tikva win62.5%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (29.8%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Ironi Tiberias lead at half-time30.9%

Level at half-time45.2%

Maccabi Petah Tikva lead at half-time24.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Ironi Tiberias ahead or level76.0%

12 — not level at half-time54.8%

X2 — level or Maccabi Petah Tikva ahead69.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 626 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Ironi Tiberias: at least 10
Maccabi Petah Tikva: at least 13

Corners

Ironi Tiberias: at least 4
Maccabi Petah Tikva: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Ironi Tiberias score1.24

Attack: Ironi Tiberias score below the league average (31% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Maccabi Petah Tikva concede 15% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.24 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Maccabi Petah Tikva score1.15

Attack: Maccabi Petah Tikva score below the league average (24% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Ironi Tiberias's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.15 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.1%1–010.5%0–19.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.