Ligat Ha'al · Israel · Relegation Round - 6

Maccabi Bnei Raina–Hapoel Hadera

1–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 3 May 2025 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Green Stadium, Nazareth Illit

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Goals and red cards

22'Hapoel HaderaY. Azulay (assist: José Cortés)
50'Maccabi Bnei RainaC. Mondzenga (assist: I. Hutba)
57'Hapoel HaderaG. Avramov

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Maccabi Bnei Raina 1.38 · Hapoel Hadera 0.95. On the pitch: 1-2.

Referee

A. Klein→

4.62

yellows per match

0.69

reds per match

matches of data

13 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 46.1%: “Maccabi Bnei Raina to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.38 for Maccabi Bnei Raina, 0.95 for Hapoel Hadera.
The highest double chance value is 75.4% (1X — Maccabi Bnei Raina win or draw).
These values were computed from 624 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Maccabi Bnei Raina to win46.1%

Draw29.2%

Hapoel Hadera to win24.6%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,196 of 4,685 predictions were correct (46.9%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Maccabi Bnei Raina win or draw75.4%

12 — any result other than a draw70.8%

X2 — draw or Hapoel Hadera win53.9%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (29.2%).

First half

Actual: 0–1

Maccabi Bnei Raina lead at half-time26.8%

Level at half-time44.2%

Hapoel Hadera lead at half-time29.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Maccabi Bnei Raina ahead or level71.0%

12 — not level at half-time55.8%

X2 — level or Hapoel Hadera ahead73.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 623 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Maccabi Bnei Raina: at least 12
Hapoel Hadera: at least 11

Corners

Maccabi Bnei Raina: at least 5
Hapoel Hadera: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Maccabi Bnei Raina score1.38

Attack: Maccabi Bnei Raina score below the league average (24% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Hapoel Hadera concede 16% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.38 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Hapoel Hadera score0.95

Attack: Hapoel Hadera score below the league average (34% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Maccabi Bnei Raina's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.95 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.7%1–012.7%2–19.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.