Ligat Ha'al · Israel · Relegation Round - 6

Maccabi Petah Tikva–Ashdod

1–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 3 May 2025 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: HaMoshava Stadium, Petah Tikva

Goals and red cards

19'AshdodHamode Kanaan (assist: E. Ansah)
33'Maccabi Petah TikvaW. Harris

Match statistics

Match statistics
Maccabi Petah Tikva		Ashdod
8	Shots	18
3	Shots on target	2
7	Shots inside the box	8
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
9	Corners	8
4	Offsides	3
50%	Possession	50%
363	Passes	352
275	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Maccabi Petah Tikva 1.40 · Ashdod 1.27. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Maccabi Petah Tikva 8 · Ashdod 18; on target 3 and 2.

Referee

I. Frid→

4.75

yellows per match

0.26

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.2%: “Maccabi Petah Tikva to win”. Second comes “Ashdod to win” at 32.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.40 for Maccabi Petah Tikva, 1.27 for Ashdod.
The highest double chance value is 72.0% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 624 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Maccabi Petah Tikva to win39.2%

Draw28.0%

Ashdod to win32.8%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,227 of 6,017 predictions were correct (37.0%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	9

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Maccabi Petah Tikva lead at half-time20.8%

Level at half-time40.6%

Ashdod lead at half-time38.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Maccabi Petah Tikva ahead or level61.4%

12 — not level at half-time59.4%

X2 — level or Ashdod ahead79.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 623 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Maccabi Petah Tikva: at least 12Actual: 14
Ashdod: at least 10Actual: 9

Corners

Maccabi Petah Tikva: at least 4Actual: 9
Ashdod: at least 3Actual: 8

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals50.3%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,889 of 5,365 predictions were correct (53.8%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 47.8%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Maccabi Petah Tikva score1.40

Attack: Maccabi Petah Tikva score below the league average (23% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Ashdod concede 26% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.40 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Ashdod score1.27

Attack: Ashdod score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Maccabi Petah Tikva concede 15% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.27 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.2%2–19.4%1–08.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.