Ligat Ha'al · Israel · Relegation Round - 5

Hapoel Hadera–Ironi Kiryat Shmona

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 26 April 2025 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Miriam Stadium, Netanya

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Goals and red cards

6'Ironi Kiryat ShmonaSekou Tidiany Bangoura · red card
54'Hapoel HaderaL. Eissat (assist: Y. Azulay)

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Hapoel Hadera 1.19 · Ironi Kiryat Shmona 1.24. On the pitch: 1-0.

Referee

S. Berman→

3.93

yellows per match

0.44

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 36.5%: “Ironi Kiryat Shmona to win”. Second comes “Hapoel Hadera to win” at 33.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.19 for Hapoel Hadera, 1.24 for Ironi Kiryat Shmona.
The highest double chance value is 70.5% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 621 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Hapoel Hadera to win33.9%

Draw29.5%

Ironi Kiryat Shmona to win36.5%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,227 of 6,017 predictions were correct (37.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Hapoel Hadera win or draw63.5%

12 — any result other than a draw70.5%

X2 — draw or Ironi Kiryat Shmona win66.1%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (29.5%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Hapoel Hadera lead at half-time36.3%

Level at half-time43.3%

Ironi Kiryat Shmona lead at half-time20.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Hapoel Hadera ahead or level79.6%

12 — not level at half-time56.7%

X2 — level or Ironi Kiryat Shmona ahead63.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 620 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Hapoel Hadera: at least 12
Ironi Kiryat Shmona: at least 11

Corners

Hapoel Hadera: at least 3
Ironi Kiryat Shmona: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Hapoel Hadera score1.19

Attack: Hapoel Hadera score below the league average (33% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Ironi Kiryat Shmona concede 16% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.19 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Ironi Kiryat Shmona score1.24

Attack: Ironi Kiryat Shmona score below the league average (20% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Hapoel Hadera concede 16% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.24 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.0%0–110.0%1–09.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.