Ligat Ha'al · Israel · Relegation Round - 5

Hapoel Katamon–Maccabi Petah Tikva

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 26 April 2025 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Teddi Malcha Stadium, Jerusalem

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What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Hapoel Katamon 1.58 · Maccabi Petah Tikva 0.99. On the pitch: 0-0.

Referee

G. Laibuvitz→

3.68

yellows per match

0.26

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 50.7%: “Hapoel Katamon to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.58 for Hapoel Katamon, 0.99 for Maccabi Petah Tikva.
The highest double chance value is 77.7% (1X — Hapoel Katamon win or draw).
These values were computed from 621 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Hapoel Katamon to win50.7%

Draw27.0%

Maccabi Petah Tikva to win22.3%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,913 of 3,689 predictions were correct (51.9%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Hapoel Katamon win or draw77.7%

12 — any result other than a draw73.0%

X2 — draw or Maccabi Petah Tikva win49.3%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (27.0%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Hapoel Katamon lead at half-time41.2%

Level at half-time42.9%

Maccabi Petah Tikva lead at half-time15.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Hapoel Katamon ahead or level84.1%

12 — not level at half-time57.1%

X2 — level or Maccabi Petah Tikva ahead58.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 620 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Hapoel Katamon: at least 10
Maccabi Petah Tikva: at least 13

Corners

Hapoel Katamon: at least 4
Maccabi Petah Tikva: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals47.8%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,488 of 5,327 predictions were correct (46.7%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 47.5%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Hapoel Katamon score1.58

Attack: Hapoel Katamon score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Maccabi Petah Tikva concede 15% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.58 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Maccabi Petah Tikva score0.99

Attack: Maccabi Petah Tikva score below the league average (23% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Hapoel Katamon's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.99 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.7%1–011.3%2–110.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.