Ligat Ha'al · Israel · Relegation Round - 4

Ashdod–Hapoel Hadera

4–1

HT 2–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 19 April 2025 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Yud-Alef Stadium, Ashdod

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Goals and red cards

7'Hapoel HaderaJ. Cortés
8'AshdodE. Ansah (assist: I. Coll)
16'AshdodM. Kna'an (penalty)
63'AshdodM. Kna'an
90+2'AshdodN. Muche (assist: Ori Azo)

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Ashdod 1.47 · Hapoel Hadera 1.09. On the pitch: 4-1.

Referee

Y. Mizrahi→

5.17

yellows per match

0.41

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 45.2%: “Ashdod to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.47 for Ashdod, 1.09 for Hapoel Hadera.
The highest double chance value is 73.2% (1X — Ashdod win or draw).
These values were computed from 618 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Ashdod to win45.2%

Draw28.0%

Hapoel Hadera to win26.8%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,070 of 4,393 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

Double chance

1X — Ashdod win or draw73.2%

12 — any result other than a draw72.0%

X2 — draw or Hapoel Hadera win54.8%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (28.0%).

First half

Actual: 2–1

Ashdod lead at half-time34.2%

Level at half-time41.6%

Hapoel Hadera lead at half-time24.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Ashdod ahead or level75.8%

12 — not level at half-time58.4%

X2 — level or Hapoel Hadera ahead65.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 617 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Ashdod: at least 12
Hapoel Hadera: at least 10

Corners

Ashdod: at least 4
Hapoel Hadera: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals47.7%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,319 of 4,970 predictions were correct (46.7%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 47.4%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Ashdod score1.47

Attack: Ashdod score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Hapoel Hadera concede 15% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.47 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Hapoel Hadera score1.09

Attack: Hapoel Hadera score below the league average (33% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Ashdod concede 25% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.09 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.2%1–010.5%2–110.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.