Ligat Ha'al · Israel · Relegation Round - 4

Maccabi Petah Tikva–Bnei Sakhnin

1–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 19 April 2025 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: HaMoshava Stadium, Petah Tikva

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Goals and red cards

43'Bnei SakhninI. Ben Hamo (assist: D. Joulani)
73'Bnei SakhninA. Ramalingom (assist: Ovadia Dervish)
74'Maccabi Petah TikvaA. Altury (assist: A. Mahamid)

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Maccabi Petah Tikva 1.23 · Bnei Sakhnin 1.05. On the pitch: 1-2.

Referee

D. Tzino→

4.92

yellows per match

0.20

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.6%: “Maccabi Petah Tikva to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 30.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.23 for Maccabi Petah Tikva, 1.05 for Bnei Sakhnin.
The highest double chance value is 69.9% (1X — Maccabi Petah Tikva win or draw).
These values were computed from 618 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Maccabi Petah Tikva to win39.6%

Draw30.4%

Bnei Sakhnin to win30.1%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,227 of 6,017 predictions were correct (37.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Maccabi Petah Tikva win or draw69.9%

12 — any result other than a draw69.6%

X2 — draw or Bnei Sakhnin win60.4%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (30.4%).

First half

Actual: 0–1

Maccabi Petah Tikva lead at half-time23.6%

Level at half-time46.8%

Bnei Sakhnin lead at half-time29.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Maccabi Petah Tikva ahead or level70.4%

12 — not level at half-time53.2%

X2 — level or Bnei Sakhnin ahead76.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 617 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Maccabi Petah Tikva: at least 12
Bnei Sakhnin: at least 10

Corners

Maccabi Petah Tikva: at least 4
Bnei Sakhnin: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Maccabi Petah Tikva score1.23

Attack: Maccabi Petah Tikva score below the league average (23% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Bnei Sakhnin's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.23 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Bnei Sakhnin score1.05

Attack: Bnei Sakhnin score below the league average (36% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Maccabi Petah Tikva's defence is close to the league average (1.15×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.05 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.3%1–011.8%0–09.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.