Ligat Ha'al · Israel · Relegation Round - 3

Hapoel Hadera–Bnei Sakhnin

0–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Monday, 7 April 2025 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Miriam Stadium, Netanya

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Goals and red cards

29'Bnei SakhninA. Salman (assist: D. Golani)

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Hapoel Hadera 1.11 · Bnei Sakhnin 1.07. On the pitch: 0-1.

Referee

G. Laibuvitz→

3.69

yellows per match

0.27

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 35.3%: “Hapoel Hadera to win”. Second comes “Bnei Sakhnin to win” at 33.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.11 for Hapoel Hadera, 1.07 for Bnei Sakhnin.
The highest double chance value is 68.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 614 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Hapoel Hadera to win35.3%

Draw31.3%

Bnei Sakhnin to win33.4%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,090 of 5,642 predictions were correct (37.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Hapoel Hadera win or draw66.6%

12 — any result other than a draw68.7%

X2 — draw or Bnei Sakhnin win64.7%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (31.3%).

First half

Actual: 0–1

Hapoel Hadera lead at half-time29.7%

Level at half-time47.0%

Bnei Sakhnin lead at half-time23.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Hapoel Hadera ahead or level76.6%

12 — not level at half-time53.0%

X2 — level or Bnei Sakhnin ahead70.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 613 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Hapoel Hadera: at least 11
Bnei Sakhnin: at least 12

Corners

Hapoel Hadera: at least 3
Bnei Sakhnin: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Hapoel Hadera score1.11

Attack: Hapoel Hadera score below the league average (33% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Bnei Sakhnin's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.11 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Bnei Sakhnin score1.07

Attack: Bnei Sakhnin score below the league average (35% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Hapoel Hadera concede 15% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.07 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.5%1–011.7%0–111.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Week 3 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this: the bias is only pronounced in the opening week. In this week the model's overall accuracy does not separate from the rest of the season — that is, we found no measurable flaw. The one tendency across all opening weeks is that home wins are called slightly too often (said 43.0%, got 41.9%; n=583).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.