Ligat Ha'al · Israel · Relegation Round - 2

Maccabi Petah Tikva–Hapoel Hadera

4–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 29 March 2025 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: HaMoshava Stadium, Petah Tikva

Goals and red cards

12'Maccabi Petah TikvaW. Harris (assist: I. Vered)
18'Hapoel HaderaI. Sangaré (assist: A. James)
63'Maccabi Petah TikvaI. Vered (assist: A. Salem)
87'Maccabi Petah TikvaA. Mahamid (penalty)
89'Maccabi Petah TikvaA. Azugi (assist: L. Hazan)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Maccabi Petah Tikva		Hapoel Hadera
17	Shots	6
8	Shots on target	3
12	Shots inside the box	4
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
5	Corners	3
2	Offsides	2
62%	Possession	38%
394	Passes	245
316	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Maccabi Petah Tikva 1.37 · Hapoel Hadera 1.04. On the pitch: 4-1.
Shots Maccabi Petah Tikva 17 · Hapoel Hadera 6; on target 8 and 3.
Maccabi Petah Tikva kept the ball more (62%).

Referee

S. Levi→

4.87

yellows per match

0.29

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.9%: “Maccabi Petah Tikva to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.37 for Maccabi Petah Tikva, 1.04 for Hapoel Hadera.
The highest double chance value is 73.0% (1X — Maccabi Petah Tikva win or draw).
These values were computed from 609 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Maccabi Petah Tikva to win43.9%

Draw29.1%

Hapoel Hadera to win27.0%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,519 of 5,657 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	9

3	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Maccabi Petah Tikva lead at half-time22.8%

Level at half-time45.1%

Hapoel Hadera lead at half-time32.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Maccabi Petah Tikva ahead or level67.9%

12 — not level at half-time54.9%

X2 — level or Hapoel Hadera ahead77.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 608 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Maccabi Petah Tikva: at least 13Actual: 14
Hapoel Hadera: at least 10Actual: 9

Corners

Maccabi Petah Tikva: at least 4Actual: 5
Hapoel Hadera: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Maccabi Petah Tikva score1.37

Attack: Maccabi Petah Tikva score below the league average (22% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Hapoel Hadera's defence is close to the league average (1.14×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.37 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Hapoel Hadera score1.04

Attack: Hapoel Hadera score below the league average (33% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Maccabi Petah Tikva's defence is close to the league average (1.14×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.04 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.7%1–011.6%2–19.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Week 2 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this: the bias is only pronounced in the opening week. In this week the model's overall accuracy does not separate from the rest of the season — that is, we found no measurable flaw. The one tendency across all opening weeks is that home wins are called slightly too often (said 43.0%, got 41.9%; n=583).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.