Ligat Ha'al · Israel · Regular Season - 26

Maccabi Netanya–Ironi Tiberias

1–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 8 March 2025 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Miriam Stadium, Netanya

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 25%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

64'Maccabi NetanyaYuval Sade
71'Ironi TiberiasJ. Botaka (penalty)

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Maccabi Netanya 1.76 · Ironi Tiberias 0.87. On the pitch: 1-1.

Referee

N. Odeh→

5.11

yellows per match

0.26

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 58.6%: “Maccabi Netanya to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.76 for Maccabi Netanya, 0.87 for Ironi Tiberias.
The highest double chance value is 83.2% (1X — Maccabi Netanya win or draw).
These values were computed from 599 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Maccabi Netanya to win58.6%

Draw24.7%

Ironi Tiberias to win16.8%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,655 of 2,780 predictions were correct (59.5%). Accuracy record →

First half

Actual: 0–0

Maccabi Netanya lead at half-time40.1%

Level at half-time41.0%

Ironi Tiberias lead at half-time18.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Maccabi Netanya ahead or level81.1%

12 — not level at half-time59.0%

X2 — level or Ironi Tiberias ahead59.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 598 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Maccabi Netanya: at least 12
Ironi Tiberias: at least 11

Corners

Maccabi Netanya: at least 4
Ironi Tiberias: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Maccabi Netanya score1.76

Attack: Maccabi Netanya score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Ironi Tiberias's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.76 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Ironi Tiberias score0.87

Attack: Ironi Tiberias score below the league average (30% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Maccabi Netanya's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.87 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.5%1–012.0%2–011.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.