Ligat Ha'al · Israel · Regular Season - 24

Bnei Sakhnin–Hapoel Hadera

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 23 February 2025 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Acre Municipal Stadium, Accre

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 25%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

66'Hapoel HaderaG. Donyoh (assist: A. Bashar)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Bnei Sakhnin		Hapoel Hadera
17	Shots	9
3	Shots on target	3
11	Shots inside the box	5
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
12	Corners	2
0	Offsides	1
61%	Possession	39%
420	Passes	287
332	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Bnei Sakhnin 1.26 · Hapoel Hadera 0.88. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Bnei Sakhnin 17 · Hapoel Hadera 9; on target 3 and 3.
Bnei Sakhnin kept the ball more (61%).

Referee

D. Tzino→

5.05

yellows per match

0.23

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 44.7%: “Bnei Sakhnin to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 30.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.26 for Bnei Sakhnin, 0.88 for Hapoel Hadera.
The highest double chance value is 75.4% (1X — Bnei Sakhnin win or draw).
These values were computed from 590 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Bnei Sakhnin to win44.7%

Draw30.7%

Hapoel Hadera to win24.6%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,357 of 5,300 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	18

1	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Bnei Sakhnin lead at half-time30.3%

Level at half-time47.8%

Hapoel Hadera lead at half-time21.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Bnei Sakhnin ahead or level78.1%

12 — not level at half-time52.2%

X2 — level or Hapoel Hadera ahead69.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 589 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Bnei Sakhnin: at least 12Actual: 12
Hapoel Hadera: at least 10Actual: 18

Corners

Bnei Sakhnin: at least 4Actual: 12
Hapoel Hadera: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Bnei Sakhnin score1.26

Attack: Bnei Sakhnin score below the league average (31% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Hapoel Hadera's defence is close to the league average (1.14×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.26 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Hapoel Hadera score0.88

Attack: Hapoel Hadera score below the league average (39% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Bnei Sakhnin's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.88 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.1%1–014.1%0–011.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.