Ligat Ha'al · Israel · Regular Season - 23

Maccabi Haifa–Hapoel Katamon

3–3

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Monday, 17 February 2025 at 18:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Sammy Ofer Stadium, Haifa

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 18%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

2'Hapoel KatamonE. Almog (assist: A. Glazer)
33'Hapoel KatamonE. Almog (assist: M. Hozez)
47'Maccabi HaifaDia Saba (assist: D. David)
63'Maccabi HaifaL. Refaelov (assist: A. Muhammad)
81'Hapoel KatamonI. Ransom Jidechukwu
89'Maccabi HaifaL. Refaelov

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Maccabi Haifa 2.23 · Hapoel Katamon 0.69. On the pitch: 3-3.

Referee

N. Odeh→

5.11

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 73.1%: “Maccabi Haifa to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 18.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.23 for Maccabi Haifa, 0.69 for Hapoel Katamon.
The highest double chance value is 91.2% (1X — Maccabi Haifa win or draw).
These values were computed from 584 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Maccabi Haifa to win73.1%

Draw18.1%

Hapoel Katamon to win8.8%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 913 of 1,223 predictions were correct (74.7%). Accuracy record →

First half

Actual: 0–2

Maccabi Haifa lead at half-time50.8%

Level at half-time38.4%

Hapoel Katamon lead at half-time10.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Maccabi Haifa ahead or level89.2%

12 — not level at half-time61.6%

X2 — level or Hapoel Katamon ahead49.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 583 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Maccabi Haifa: at least 11
Hapoel Katamon: at least 12

Corners

Maccabi Haifa: at least 4
Hapoel Katamon: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Maccabi Haifa score2.23

Attack: Maccabi Haifa score 60% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Hapoel Katamon's defence is close to the league average (1.01×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.23 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Hapoel Katamon score0.69

Attack: Hapoel Katamon score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Maccabi Haifa concede 30% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.69 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–013.8%1–011.3%2–110.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.