Ligat Ha'al · Israel · Regular Season - 23

Maccabi Petah Tikva–Maccabi Netanya

0–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 15 February 2025 at 15:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: HaMoshava Stadium, Petah Tikva

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

33'Maccabi NetanyaI. Zlatanović (assist: M. Plakushchenko)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Maccabi Petah Tikva		Maccabi Netanya
9	Shots	10
2	Shots on target	2
4	Shots inside the box	5
1	Goalkeeper saves	2
6	Corners	0
0	Offsides	1
50%	Possession	50%
432	Passes	445
373	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Maccabi Petah Tikva 1.26 · Maccabi Netanya 1.66. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Maccabi Petah Tikva 9 · Maccabi Netanya 10; on target 2 and 2.

Referee

V. Bondarev→

5.00

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 46.3%: “Maccabi Netanya to win”. Second comes “Maccabi Petah Tikva to win” at 27.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.26 for Maccabi Petah Tikva, 1.66 for Maccabi Netanya.
The highest double chance value is 74.0% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 579 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Maccabi Petah Tikva to win27.6%

Draw26.0%

Maccabi Netanya to win46.3%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,071 of 4,397 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	12

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Maccabi Petah Tikva lead at half-time27.4%

Level at half-time40.6%

Maccabi Netanya lead at half-time31.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Maccabi Petah Tikva ahead or level68.1%

12 — not level at half-time59.4%

X2 — level or Maccabi Netanya ahead72.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 578 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Maccabi Petah Tikva: at least 13Actual: 9
Maccabi Netanya: at least 10Actual: 12

Corners

Maccabi Petah Tikva: at least 3
Maccabi Netanya: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Maccabi Petah Tikva score1.26

Attack: Maccabi Petah Tikva score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Maccabi Netanya's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.26 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Maccabi Netanya score1.66

Attack: Maccabi Netanya score above the league average (19% more).

Opponent's defence: Maccabi Petah Tikva concede 21% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.66 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.9%1–210.3%0–18.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.