Ligat Ha'al · Israel · Regular Season - 22

Beitar Jerusalem–Hapoel Hadera

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 8 February 2025 at 15:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Teddi Malcha Stadium, Jerusalem

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 21%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
Beitar Jerusalem		Hapoel Hadera
23	Shots	4
4	Shots on target	1
11	Shots inside the box	2
1	Goalkeeper saves	4
9	Corners	2
1	Offsides	4
77%	Possession	23%
637	Passes	196
553	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Beitar Jerusalem 2.06 · Hapoel Hadera 0.77. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Beitar Jerusalem 23 · Hapoel Hadera 4; on target 4 and 1.
Beitar Jerusalem kept the ball more (77%).

Referee

N. Odeh→

5.17

yellows per match

0.26

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 67.9%: “Beitar Jerusalem to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 20.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.06 for Beitar Jerusalem, 0.77 for Hapoel Hadera.
The highest double chance value is 88.5% (1X — Beitar Jerusalem win or draw).
These values were computed from 572 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Beitar Jerusalem to win67.9%

Draw20.6%

Hapoel Hadera to win11.5%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 1,040 of 1,528 predictions were correct (68.1%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	14

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Beitar Jerusalem lead at half-time45.8%

Level at half-time39.4%

Hapoel Hadera lead at half-time14.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Beitar Jerusalem ahead or level85.2%

12 — not level at half-time60.6%

X2 — level or Hapoel Hadera ahead54.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 571 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Beitar Jerusalem: at least 13Actual: 8
Hapoel Hadera: at least 10Actual: 14

Corners

Beitar Jerusalem: at least 5Actual: 9
Hapoel Hadera: at least 2Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Beitar Jerusalem score2.06

Attack: Beitar Jerusalem score above the league average (27% more).

Opponent's defence: Hapoel Hadera concede 15% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.06 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Hapoel Hadera score0.77

Attack: Hapoel Hadera score below the league average (34% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Beitar Jerusalem's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.77 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–013.0%1–011.5%2–110.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.